Risk of russian offensive from Belarus to northern Ukraine remains low - ISW

The risk of a russian offensive from Belarus to northern Ukraine remains low. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The risk of a russian offensive from Belarus into northern Ukraine remains low despite a prominent Ukrainian official's warning on October 20 that the risk of a russian offensive from Belarus is "increasing", - the message says.

It is noted that an offensive remains unlikely in the coming months, given that russian forces do not have the ability to cut off Ukrainian supply lines from the west through a ground offensive.

"The nearest Ukrainian railway from east to west runs 30 km from the Belarusian border, and the Prypiat swamps in northern Ukraine and Belarus make maneuver warfare over the international border in the Volyn and Rivne oblasts extremely difficult. The road and rail network of Ukraine has enough nodes with Romania, Slovakia and Hungary so that a russian invasion from Belarus cannot seriously impair Ukrainian logistical lines", - the ISW writes.

As previously reported, air defense system operators and tank crews are being trained in the army of Belarus, under the guise of training camps.