Political and military highlights of events over the past 24 hours. A real negotiation process is beginning

1. During a conference call with regional administration heads, Zelensky instructed Prime Minister Koretsky to present a program for free travel on Kyiv's urban surface public transport and a reserve fleet of buses.

This is an acknowledgment of the effectiveness of russia's tactics of destroying Ukraine's civilian and energy infrastructure. Kyiv is preparing for a scenario in which the capital's metro and electric public transport could come to a standstill. The instruction to provide free surface transport and a reserve fleet of buses indicates that the authorities are preparing for prolonged rolling blackouts rather than a quick repair. At the same time, ahead of the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, Zelensky has shown that the military-related inconveniences faced by the civilian population will not affect the authorities' political decisions regarding the terms of peace. An escalation of strikes can be expected in the coming days, as moscow traditionally increases their intensity ahead of negotiation rounds.

Economically, this means further contraction of industry, a shrinking tax base, and growing demand for external financing of the 2027 budget.

2. On the night of November 9, drones attacked the industrial zone of Kirishi in the Leningrad oblast, where Kinef, one of the largest oil refineries in the russian federation, is located. This was the second attack on the plant since August 30, when the facility suspended operations.

Kinef supplies fuel to the entire northwestern part of the russian federation, including St. Petersburg, and produces jet fuel and diesel. Therefore, the repeated strike does not target export revenues but rather moscow's domestic fuel balance. It is also important that the air defense system protecting the St. Petersburg area failed again, expanding the list of available targets for Kyiv.

3. Kyiv has completed preparations for trilateral talks involving the United States and the russian federation, scheduled for November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Zelensky met with the Ukrainian delegation, which includes Rustem Umerov (head of the delegation), Kyrylo Budanov, Davyd Arakhamia, and Serhii Kyslytsia, Chief of the General Staff Andrii Hnatov, and Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi. According to Bloomberg, russia will send a higher-level delegation to this round of talks, headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. The delegation is also expected to include Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov, and a representative of the General Staff. There were also reports that putin's aide Ushakov would travel to Abu Dhabi.

On November 8, the French Foreign Minister stated that Europe would participate in the negotiations on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi, with France intending to convey the European position to the participants of the meeting.

The "political" composition of moscow's delegation indicates that the russian federation intends to focus primarily on political issues rather than a ceasefire along the front line. The composition of the Ukrainian delegation, by contrast, is military-oriented, indicating that the delegations have different objectives. However, the higher level of moscow's representatives (especially if Ushakov is indeed among them) demonstrates the kremlin's concern over developments on the battlefield and preparations to shift diplomatic meetings from a one-spectator show (for Trump) to a genuine negotiation process. This does not mean, however, that this round of talks in Abu Dhabi will already produce concrete results. It is only the beginning of a lengthy negotiation process. Europe's announced participation strengthens Kyiv's position and links the American mediators' business initiatives in bilateral negotiations with russia to the issue of Ukraine. The reduction of Trump's leverage diminishes moscow's incentive to win him over. This, in turn, makes the U.S. position more balanced. Now, with the help of the new U.S. Congress, Kyiv needs to secure a change in the composition of the American delegation. This can be achieved without a direct confrontation with Trump if Witkoff and Kushner physically have no time for negotiations due to constant summonses to testify before Congress.

4. At the opening of trading on Monday, November 9, oil prices fell: Brent crude dropped by 84 cents to $97.48 per barrel. According to Reuters, Brent lost approximately 16–17% over the week. The reasons cited include the results of the U.S. midterm elections, which increased expectations of de-escalation around Iran, and a collapse in technology stocks.

Cheap oil is the strongest factor working against the kremlin. Brent below $100, combined with the discount on Urals crude and rising logistics costs for the shadow fleet, squeezes the russian oil and gas revenues precisely when moscow needs to finance both the war and the reconstruction of its own oil refineries. However, $97 is still far from the $67 level recorded before the start of American aggression against Iran, when russian Urals crude was priced at $45 and the russian budget was based on an oil price of $74...