Political and military highlights of the events of October 22. Everything you need to know about the U.S. “security guarantees” for Ukraine

1. Bloomberg reported that Rosneft fears long-term damage from the continuation of the war. Despite rising global oil prices, the company’s net profit for the first half of the year fell by almost 20%, to 200 billion rubles. Since the beginning of 2026, russian oil refineries have been hit at least 114 times, twice as many as last year. The Syzran refinery was idle for most of the first half of the year, while the Tuapse refinery has been out of operation since April. Meanwhile, Reuters published a study according to which, in dollar terms, the average tax price per barrel of russian oil after the start of the U.S. war with Iran was approximately $103.4 per barrel. This is twice the figure factored into the russian budget. Current figures are already approaching their highest levels since March 2022. At the same time, the russian budget continues to face serious pressure: the projected deficit for 2026 is around 3% of GDP.

Despite Trump’s efforts to replenish russia’s military budget, Ukraine’s long-range campaign is having a tangible effect. Rosneft’s declining profits amid record-high oil prices mean that moscow’s problem lies specifically in its damaged refining capacity. If Kyiv maintains this pace, the kremlin will soon face a choice between fuel shortages in russia and a reduction in export revenues used to finance the war. But this “if” once again comes down to Trump. Although the fact that moscow continues to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure gives Kyiv a certain degree of freedom of action in this regard.

2. Yesterday, Trump told reporters that Elon Musk had restored satellite communications for the Ukrainian military. However, the Associated Press, citing a senior European official, reported that the StarShield speed restriction of approximately 160 km/h remains in effect. Zelensky also stated that the speed restrictions have not yet been lifted.

This situation is all you need to know about the U.S. “security guarantees” for Ukraine. Trump either lives in his own reality, which has nothing to do with objective reality, or he does not control Musk, who pursues his own geopolitics independently of the U.S. president. In any case, Trump’s “guarantees” to Ukraine are merely a diplomatic “carrot” and nothing more.

3. Putin gave an interview to russian television in which he commented on the results of his meeting with Steve Witkoff. He said that the goal of negotiations should be to ensure the security of Ukraine and russia after a final peace agreement is concluded, rather than a temporary ceasefire for a short period. The dictator also agreed with Witkoff’s proposal to discuss a broader European security architecture. Putin once again stated that Ukraine’s Donbas is “the territory of historical russia”.

The russian federation insists on a final political agreement that must precede the cessation of hostilities. From putin’s rhetoric, it is clear that, in his understanding, a “final political agreement” implies Ukraine’s legal recognition of russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories. This is unacceptable to Kyiv in any form. In other words, the resumption of negotiations does not mean that the parties’ positions have changed; they remain fundamentally incompatible.

The russian federation’s discussion of the terms of peace in Ukraine with the U.S. in the context of agreements on pan-European security indicates that moscow and Washington intend to divide the world into spheres of influence, conceding at least part of Europe to russia. At the same time, Trump and putin are unlikely to consult either Ukraine or Europe. This approach means that either the negotiation process will drag on for years or its results will simply be ignored by Ukraine and the EU. This, in turn, would bring Trump and putin even closer together. Such a scenario increases the importance for the kremlin of having Trump in the White House. This means that moscow will do everything to keep Trump in power, even going so far as to directly destabilize the U.S. political system.