Political and military highlights of the events of October 12 in Ukraine and the world. Zelensky with his hands tied

1. Zelensky said that russia had already violated the “energy truce”: a jet-powered drone struck a Naftogaz gas production facility in the Kharkiv oblast. Ukraine is ready to observe the truce “if russia is ready to do the same”, Zelensky said. However, Kyiv did not launch a retaliatory strike on russian oil refineries.

Instead of forcing moscow to make peace, Trump wants to achieve a truce by unilaterally forcing Ukraine to capitulate. russia has not acknowledged that an energy truce exists. Accordingly, the cessation of Ukrainian strikes on russian oil refineries is Kyiv's unilateral decision to stop weakening the enemy under pressure from Trump. Meanwhile, the kremlin has given up neither strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities nor the bombing of residential neighborhoods — in fact, it has given up nothing at all. Zelensky has his hands tied: a retaliatory strike on russian oil refineries could be used by Trump as a pretext to halt arms and intelligence supplies, while stopping the strikes strengthens russia and weakens Ukraine. In other words, Kyiv loses either way, while moscow wins thanks to Trump.

A way out lies somewhere in between: send Washington a discreet signal that if intelligence and arms supplies are halted, Kyiv will publicly demand a change in the U.S. negotiating team on the grounds that its members have discredited themselves through their asymmetrical treatment of the parties to the conflict. Formally, this would not mean rejecting U.S. mediation, but rather expressing distrust of specific representatives of Trump's Republican administration. At least until the November 3 congressional elections, this would deter Trump from halting support for Ukraine, since such a move would lower the Republicans' ratings. After November 3, the balance of power in Washington could change dramatically, according to U.S. opinion polls, to Trump's disadvantage. He would then be forced to act in accordance with U.S. laws that stipulate support for Ukraine. At the same time, if Ukrainian energy infrastructure is struck again, Kyiv must respond with a proportionate strike on russian oil refineries. In parallel, strikes on russian data centers should be intensified, as they are the second key component of the russian economy's functioning, before russia relocates its digital hubs to neighboring countries.

2. Kyiv continued and intensified its long-range campaign. Yandex's data center in Vladimir completely shut down operations, and outages were observed across Runet affecting Yandex Go, Yandex Pay, Yandex Music, Kinopoisk, and Alice services. Temporary restrictions were imposed at the airports in Sochi, Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Saransk, Penza, and Ivanovo due to Ukrainian UAVs;

This is the right but forced shift in Kyiv's priorities in its long-range campaign. The risk is that the socioeconomic impact of such strikes accumulates more slowly than fuel shortages. In other words, Ukraine is losing momentum in weakening the enemy, and the price of this loss is Ukrainian lives.

3. The Council of the EU adopted the largest sanctions package against russia in its history. The lists now include 826 russian companies and 743 individuals — their executives, as well as organizers of illegal elections in occupied territories. More than half of the measures target the ballistic missile production chain. The measures provide for asset freezes and a ban on making funds available, while individuals are subject to a ban on entering the EU.

Europe is increasingly diverging from Washington in its policy toward russia. This cannot but affect NATO's policy toward russia. Despite statements that NATO is ready to repel a moscow attack on member states, the White House's actions in practice cast doubt on whether this readiness will be translated into action. At least for as long as Trump is president of the United States.

4. The Verkhovna Rada adopted, with 266 votes, a law ensuring the educational rights of indigenous peoples and national minorities, expanding education in the languages of minorities that are official EU languages. This removes one of Hungary's conditions and, according to Kyiv, unblocks two negotiating clusters on Ukraine's path to EU membership.

This amounts to fulfilling Budapest's ultimatum, which de facto means creating a now-legally-sanctioned Hungarian enclave in Zakarpattia, where Ukrainian citizens already struggle to speak Ukrainian. Essentially, this is a surrender of sovereignty over a limited part of Ukrainian territory to a neighboring state. Moreover, it does not guarantee Ukraine's accelerated accession to the EU — or even its accession at all — since the main obstacle concerns agricultural market issues, not the rights of national minorities.

With this decision, the President and the Verkhovna Rada have laid the groundwork for a future territorial conflict with Budapest under the pretext of “protecting Hungarians”, analogous to putin's “protection of russians”. In addition, it brings the issue of the rights of russian-speaking Ukrainians and russians as a national minority to the fore. These groups are now, essentially, being held responsible in Ukraine for the actions of a neighboring state with which they have nothing to do. All in all, another fault line in Ukrainian society...

5. The occupation authorities in Luhansk stated that the “LNR power system has switched to emergency operating mode”, while around 50,000 households in Luhansk were left without electricity and water.

The emergency in the power system of the occupied Luhansk oblast was caused not by Kyiv's attacks, but by the accelerating degradation of infrastructure that russia has been unable to integrate or modernize throughout the years of occupation. The situation will only worsen because of the war.