Ukraine and russia may agree on a short-term energy and maritime truce – political analyst Chalenko

The most realistic scenario on the negotiating track at present is the conclusion of a short-term energy and maritime truce between Ukraine and russia. Political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko expressed this opinion in a comment to OstroV.

Commenting on statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky about the possible resumption of negotiations and the holding of trilateral meetings in the United Arab Emirates, Chalenko noted that he does not expect a rapid breakthrough from the negotiating process for now.

"At present, I personally see a short-term, specifically short-term, energy and maritime truce as a realistic scenario", - the political analyst said.

According to him, the duration of such a truce may be minimal, since the approaching U.S. congressional elections is an important factor for russia.

"The further the deadline is moved toward the end of October, the less need russia has to comply with the agreements in anticipation of the elections to the United States Congress. And accordingly, the duration of such a ceasefire regime may be extremely minimal", - Chalenko explained.

At the same time, according to the expert, preparations for proposals concerning a broader settlement are continuing in parallel. He drew attention to Zelensky's previous statements that Ukraine and Europe are working on their own proposals, while the United States and russia are preparing theirs.

"This is precisely what shows that, most likely, there is an attempt to give a new impetus to Trump's peace plan, possibly with the addition of some additional points", - the political analyst noted.

According to Chalenko, russia will probably try to return the negotiations to the original version of the American peace plan, which provided for a broader list of provisions.

"I get the impression that the russian federation will stand more firmly on the reincarnation of Trump's original plan, for the most part, the 28 points that we saw earlier, a year ago. That is, to return to that version", - he said.

At the same time, according to the expert's forecast, Ukraine and European states may try to supplement the American plan with their own principles for ending the war.

"Ukraine and Europe, I can assume, will nevertheless try to incorporate into the body of Trump's peace plan the five principles that were made public in June after Zelensky traveled to London for a meeting with European leaders and the five principles for ending the war were published", - Chalenko noted.

According to him, it is precisely on the basis of these principles that a common Ukrainian-European position may be formed during further negotiations.

In his opinion, possible technical meetings of representatives of the parties will have particular significance. It is during such contacts that an updated version of the peace plan and the possibility of its further coordination may be discussed.

"And here there is an interesting aspect, precisely regarding the technical meeting, because obviously this issue could very well be brought up for discussion", - Chalenko noted.

At the same time, the expert is skeptical about the likelihood that all parties will agree on the updated peace plan in the near future.

"If there is nevertheless a positive signal, which I personally do not believe in, I give it a probability of up to 10%. But nevertheless, if there is a positive signal that, preliminarily, such an updated peace plan could receive the support of all parties, then mid-December, Miami, San Diego 20, then it would already be possible to speak of a meeting between Zelensky, Trump, and putin in the United States as a quite realistic scenario", - the political analyst concluded.