Political and military highlights of the events of October 4 in Ukraine and the world. Kyiv has begun to deplete moscow's air defenses

1. In Kyiv, a jet-powered drone hit the roadway of the Northern Bridge, blocking a lane: This is the fourth consecutive day that russians have targeted Kyiv's bridges: before that, the Southern Bridge and the same Northern Bridge came under attack. The russian Defense Ministry said on October 4 that russia would increase the intensity of strikes on Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine.

The strikes on the bridges are an attempt to disrupt connections between the two parts of Kyiv and logistical routes between central and eastern Ukraine. The goal is to complicate the supply of the front, create chaos among the population, force the authorities to spend resources on pontoon crossings and impose traffic restrictions during alerts. This tactic will continue: it is cheap for russia and has a noticeable psychological and economic effect.

2. The russian Defense Ministry reported that over the course of October 4, its air defenses destroyed 1,222 Ukrainian drones over 15 regions, as well as four guided aerial bombs and three HIMARS missiles. This is one of the highest figures since the beginning of the war. On the same day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara said that the Defense Forces had put out of action more than 51% of russia's oil refining capacity.

Ukraine has begun to deplete the enemy's air defenses through sheer numbers, increasing the likelihood of new breakthroughs to major oil refineries. russia is already forced to cover its domestic fuel deficit by restricting exports and losing sales volumes amid peak price growth.

3. German Chancellor F. Merz arrived in Kyiv accompanied by representatives of German defense companies. The announced support package exceeds €1.3 billion: around €1 billion in weapons and equipment, and another approximately €350 million in energy support ahead of winter, including funding for the production of interceptor drones against "Shaheds". German companies and Ukrainian partners signed 14 agreements worth a total of approximately €6.6 billion. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine and Germany are close to completing a broad defense agreement providing for the joint production of drones, missiles, and software.

Berlin is moving from supplying surplus stockpiles to financing Ukrainian production. For Kyiv, this format is more valuable than one-off packages because it does not depend on the availability of systems in Bundeswehr stockpiles and can be scaled up domestically. The chancellor's arrival under air raid sirens is also a signal to moscow that threats against European diplomats in Kyiv will not stop Western support.

4. Zelensky confirmed that the United States had proposed holding a trilateral meeting of Ukraine, russia, and American mediators at the technical level by the end of October. The agenda includes a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure, to which Ukraine is ready only if russia reciprocally agrees to stop attacks on Ukraine's energy system. On the same day, moscow, through its Defense Ministry, promised to step up strikes on Ukraine.

Given these circumstances, the negotiations are moving from the realm of genuine dialogue into a format of diplomatic dances, whose only audience is Trump and the American electorate. Clearly, until the situation in the Persian Gulf stabilizes (which will not happen before the Republican Party's defeat in the U.S. congressional elections on November 3), russia is not interested in the energy track of the settlement.

5. Occupied areas of the Donetsk oblast remained without electricity and water for the second consecutive day on October 4. The head of the "DNR government", A. Chertkov, attributed this to "powerful enemy attacks" on the energy system. In the evening, the occupation authorities of the Luhansk oblast also reported an "emergency situation in the energy system", without naming the cause.

This is a new reality for the local population. It has found itself in the same position into which russia is driving cities under Kyiv's control. The war, which moved away from the occupied part of Donbas after 2022, is returning to the "republics", devaluing the kremlin's stated goal of the so-called "special military operation" – "the protection of Donbas".