Political and military highlights of the events of September 29 in Ukraine and around the world. Russia's demographic special operation in Mariupol

1. Anton Koltsov, the “mayor” of Mariupol appointed by moscow, said that new residents were being moved into confiscated apartments. According to him, around 3,300 families have already been settled through the “municipal fund”, while approximately 25,000 properties have been added to the lists for confiscation, accounting for 15% of the city's housing stock.

The confiscation of 15% of Mariupol's housing stock is a demographic special operation. Apartments are being given to loyalists and war participants to make the return of the former owners legally impossible. Essentially, this is a modernized version of the practice of mass deportations used by the Stalinist regime.

2. Russian aircraft struck the center of Sumy with four guided aerial bombs. One of the KABs hit a school building where classes were underway. The children and staff managed to take shelter. That evening, russia struck the same school again.

A second strike on the same facility five hours later was clearly not a “targeting error”. It is a deliberate tactic aimed at making in-person schooling impossible and forcing parents to leave the region out of fear for their children. In Sumy, we are seeing the same tactic of depopulating territory that the enemy is currently employing against Kramatorsk and Sloviansk…

3. Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the Kyiv-Pasazhyrskyi railway station depot and business and data centers in Kyiv had been hit, while port infrastructure in Odesa was damaged. Power outages occurred in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia oblasts.

Russia is once again combining two targets: energy infrastructure and logistics. This undermines the ability to transport people, fuel, and military cargo at the beginning of the heating season, complicates communication between the state and its citizens, and devalues the idea of an “energy truce”.

4. On September 29, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published a 25-page open letter to American voters, urging them to reject Trump's policies ahead of the midterm elections.

This means that there is no reason to expect an improvement in the situation in the Middle East, and consequently a drop in oil prices, before December. Iran is clearly seeking to bring about the defeat of Trump and the Republicans in the elections, as their ratings are falling in proportion to rising prices at American gas stations. This makes it reasonable to expect a new fuel price shock, triggered by Tehran, before the U.S. election day on November 3. The positive news is that if the Republicans lose, the situation in the Persian Gulf will most likely stabilize quickly. This, in turn, will reduce the kremlin's resources for waging war.