Political and military highlights of the events of September 27 in Ukraine and the world. State registers, banking services, and communications under threat

1. On the night of September 27 and throughout the day, the russians launched one of the most massive combined attacks on Ukraine. In total, 14 people were killed and 57 injured over the course of the day. In Kiliia, right on the border with Romania, drones struck port infrastructure on the Danube. In Kyiv, the target of the attack was the headquarters of Kyivstar mobile operator. At the same time, the russian Defense Ministry claimed to have struck a Vodafone Ukraine data center. Another data center in Kyiv was attacked twice. Previous attacks on data centers have already caused communication outages for approximately 100,000 households in the capital and the region.

Russia has definitively shifted the focus of its air campaign from military facilities to the economy and the resilience of the home front. Danube ports, grain storage facilities, data centers, mobile operators, and energy infrastructure are being knocked out on the eve of the heating season in an effort to simultaneously reduce Kyiv’s export revenues and make winter physically difficult for the population. Strikes on data centers open up another front: state registers, banking services, and communications are now under threat — in other words, the very digital infrastructure that underpins the mobilization and social systems.

2. The DeepState analytical project recorded the occupation of Novooleksandrivka on the approaches to Dobropillia and the advance of russian troops in two other areas of the Donetsk oblast. At the same time, Viktor Trehubov, a spokesperson for the Joint Forces Group, reported that Ukrainian units continue to push russian troops back toward the Oskil River and reduce the russian bridgehead on its western bank north of Kupiansk.

The situation at the front is twofold: while Ukrainian forces are advancing in the Lyman and Kupiansk directions, russia continues to dig in on the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk directions, and the capture of Novooleksandrivka opens up an opportunity for it to put pressure on Dobropillia. In other words, the slow erosion of Ukrainian positions near Kostiantynivka, where the fate of the entire Donetsk agglomeration is being decided, is nevertheless continuing.

3. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul explained his decision to meet with his russian counterpart, Lavrov, for the first time since 2022. According to him, countries of the Global South asked Germany to help secure an end to attacks on Black Sea shipping and restore Ukrainian and russian grain exports, without which these countries face the risk of a food crisis.

A maritime truce is the most realistic option for at least a partial de-escalation, since it is beneficial to both russia and Ukraine, as well as to the countries of the Global South, whose support russia is interested in securing. Such a truce would also benefit the U.S. administration ahead of the congressional elections. Therefore, it can be considered the most promising item on the agenda of the upcoming negotiations in the Ukraine-U.S.-russia format.

4. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran would not soften its conditions for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had proposed opening the strait within seven days if seven conditions were met, including the lifting of the US naval blockade, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and an end to the strikes. Trump rejected the proposal. Several hours after the rejection, Iran used anti-ship missiles and drones against passing vessels. Oil prices continued to rise at the start of the week.

The most likely scenario described by military analysts is “controlled attrition”, with alternating attacks on tankers and limited U.S. strikes. For Kyiv, this means that the factor of expensive russian oil, which fuels the kremlin’s military spending, will work against Ukraine at least until the end of the year.