Political and military highlights of the events of September 20 in Ukraine and the world. Putin now has his hands untied for...

1. On the night of September 20, on the final day of the elections to the russian State Duma, Ukraine launched the largest strike on the russian capital and the moscow oblast since the beginning of the year. The Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya was hit — approximately 15 km from the kremlin. Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports suspended operations. There were civilian casualties.

The strike on an oil refinery within moscow on voting day was obviously aimed not only at an economic but also a political effect. However, it could have the opposite effect for Kyiv. On the one hand, yes — it demonstrates the inability of putin’s regime to ensure normal living conditions and protect russians. But on the other hand, the propaganda backdrop of these elections must be taken into account. The kremlin presented them not simply as a vote for deputies, but as a vote for “our fighters”, that is, for putin and the war. Therefore, voting against the backdrop of a burning oil refinery and civilian casualties could fuel patriotic sentiments and contribute to the kremlin’s desire to turn the “special military operation” into the “great patriotic war”, that is, to involve the entire population of russia in the war.

Another effect of this strike is Kyiv raising the stakes in Zelensky’s talks with Trump in New York, which they agreed on yesterday. Trump wants strikes on russian oil refineries to stop because of rising diesel prices in the United States ahead of the congressional elections.

2. Commander of the 3rd Army Corps Andrii Biletskyi announced on September 20 the completion of the second stage of the “Vivaldi” counteroffensive operation in the Lyman direction. According to him, Shandryholove, Derylove and Drobesheve have been liberated, and since the beginning of the operation, more than 125 square kilometers in the north of the Donetsk oblast have been brought back under Ukrainian control. The operation consists of four stages. Biletskyi called Shandryholove a “critical point both for our troops and for the enemy”.

The russian plan to encircle Lyman and the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from the north has been thwarted. This increases the possible timeframe for the russians to seize the region, which could have a positive political and diplomatic effect for Kyiv. And a negative one for putin, who will once again have to postpone the deadline for seizing Donbas in front of the whole world.

3. The “elections” to the russian State Duma have ended in russia and in the occupied territories.

We will assess their results tomorrow, based on the data published on September 21. But the very fact that the electoral cycle in russia has ended gives grounds to hope for the revival of a real (!) negotiation process. Moscow is no longer bound by electoral expectations and has more room for a realistic option for ending active hostilities (if putin has the political will to do so!!!). The meeting between Trump and Zelensky could become preparation for a new round of American-russian-Ukrainian diplomacy.

On the other hand — and this is more likely — with the end of the elections, putin loses a factor that may have restrained particularly unpopular decisions in recent months. In particular, decisions on mobilization, additional military spending and tax increases.

4. An aerial bomb hit an evacuation point in Kramatorsk.

At first glance, the shelling of an evacuation point in Kramatorsk works to keep civilians in the combat zone. But the overall pattern of shelling frontline cities, with the deliberate destruction of peaceful infrastructure in particular, makes the version that creating a threat of the complete destruction of evacuation infrastructure is, on the contrary, aimed at accelerating the flight of the civilian population from the region more likely. Subsequently, during negotiations, the absence of Ukrainian civilians in these territories could be used by russia as a tool of pressure on Kyiv and an argument to leave this territory.