Political and military highlights of the events of September 16 in Ukraine and the world. A decoy in congress

1. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on sanctions against russia. More precisely, secondary sanctions for countries buying russian oil and gas. It was supported by 262 congressmen, while 159 voted against it. The document is being sent to Donald Trump for signature. The law allows tariffs of up to 100% to be imposed. Obvious potential targets for sanctions include China, India, and Turkey.

If Washington really starts forcing buyers to choose between cheap russian oil and access to the U.S. market, moscow’s ability to sell its raw materials will narrow significantly. But the decision to impose sanctions remains with the president. And Trump is unlikely to exercise such a right, given the possible response from the countries mentioned above, especially China.

2. Ursula von der Leyen stated in the European Parliament that the EU had approved the purchase of U.S. interceptor missiles for Patriot systems for the first time and emphasized the need for urgent delivery. She announced the joint development with Ukraine of an affordable modular missile defense system — the “Freya” project, combining Ukrainian combat experience with European technologies and production capacities. She also promised the European Commission that Europe would provide Ukraine with the strongest possible support in winter.

“Freya” is an attempt by the EU to move away from dependence on individual expensive American systems and build mass-produced, affordable air defense systems manufactured in Europe, with Ukraine acting not as a supplicant but as a provider of combat experience and technologies. But implementation of this program by the winter of 2026/27, when it will be particularly necessary for Ukraine’s energy sector, is highly questionable. Some EU countries have already raised questions about the source of funding for this program.

3. On September 16, Reuters reported that the Syzran and Saratov oil refineries had completely halted oil processing following Ukrainian drone attacks. russia is forced to extend restrictions on diesel fuel exports at least until the end of October.

This explains moscow’s interest in negotiations on an “energy truce” (not in the truce itself! Or in a truce, but on russia’s terms!)). Trump has his own interest in them, given the election situation in the U.S. and rising diesel prices. If Kyiv cannot resist the unfavorable deal being imposed on it, it can at least delay its approval. There is a good chance that in two months, after the elections, it will no longer be relevant to Trump.

4. A russian drone attacked a passenger train in the Mykolaiv oblast. On the same day, a russian drone struck a passenger bus near Nikopol — five people were killed. In 2026 alone — according to Ukrainian Railways statistics — russia attacked more than 1,700 railway infrastructure facilities.

Moscow is increasingly clearly treating Ukraine’s railway system as a strategic target. In doing so, it pursues three goals at once: making the deployment of troops and equipment more difficult; striking the economy; and complicating civilian mobility, including evacuation. Therefore, the resilience of Ukrainian Railways is effectively becoming one of the elements of national defense.

5. On September 16, the draft budget of Ukraine for 2027 was officially submitted to the Verkhovna Rada. It proposes allocating UAH 4.885 trillion — about $110 billion — to security and defense, or almost 44% of GDP and approximately two-thirds of all government spending. This is 11.9% more than the current 2026 plan.

Ukraine will need more than $52 billion in international financial assistance in 2027, while commitments of approximately $20 billion have so far been confirmed. If external financing is not provided, Kyiv will not be able to maintain the proposed level of military spending without very difficult tax or monetary policy decisions. Therefore, the fight for frozen russian assets is once again becoming extremely relevant.