Political and military highlights of yesterday’s events in Ukraine and the world. The risk of a confrontation between russia and NATO is increasing

1. The most serious event on September 10 was the russian strike on Pavlohrad. As a result of russian attacks in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast, seven people were killed and 76 were injured over the course of the day. In Pavlohrad itself, the strike hit the central shopping area.

The increase in the number of strikes on this area may be part of an attempt by russia to complicate Ukrainian logistics to the eastern front. The choice of targets in recent days is noteworthy: commercial facilities, food industry enterprises, energy facilities, ports, and border crossings. russia is changing its strategy: alongside the seizure of territory, the focus is on the economic and logistical degradation of the Ukrainian rear and the psychological exhaustion of the population.

2. On September 10, Polish Prime Minister D. Tusk said that Polish and Ukrainian services had prevented a "direct threat" to one of the Ukrainian-Polish border crossings overnight. He also said that Warsaw expects attempts by russia to attack Ukraine’s border crossings with other European countries. Tusk said he had received sufficiently specific information from the CIA about possible developments in the coming months.

If russia is indeed expanding its campaign from ports and energy facilities to western border crossings, the war is effectively approaching NATO infrastructure directly. The Alliance’s eastern members will strengthen their own air defenses near the Ukrainian border, which could affect their missile defense assistance to Ukraine.

3. On September 10, Zelensky said that there would be no trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-russia meeting before the russian parliamentary elections on September 20. At the same time, he expects to discuss energy and grain trade issues with Trump at the end of September.

This indicates the priorities of the Ukrainian leadership in the emerging negotiation process: not a ceasefire, but an energy and grain truce.

4. The price of Brent rose by another approximately 6% — to $107.63 per barrel, while US WTI reached $102.48. The reason is the further escalation of the U.S.-Iran war.

Given the level of this factor’s impact on Trump, inflation, and economic problems in Europe and the U.S.; as well as the distribution of weapons and the increase in moscow’s resource capacity to wage war, the rise in oil prices is more important for Ukraine than the previous points of this overview.

5. Reuters reported on September 10 that Britain, Norway, and the U.S. had thwarted a russian operation in the Svalbard area in the spring. Russia allegedly was testing the use of technology capable of disabling underwater fiber-optic cables.

Combined with Poland’s warnings, this indicates that russia’s pressure on Europe is becoming less and less limited to Ukrainian territory. The risk of a direct confrontation with NATO is increasing.