Negotiations on ending the war have entered a new phase, but reaching agreement on key issues remains difficult — political analyst Chalenko

The negotiating process on ending the russian-Ukrainian war has entered a new phase, but reaching agreements on key issues in the near future remains unlikely. At the same time, the parties may attempt to reach agreements on the security of navigation in the Black Sea and an energy ceasefire. Political analyst and head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies Ihor Chalenko expressed this opinion in a comment to OstroV.

“I am absolutely convinced that we have indeed reached a new stage of intensified negotiations, mostly behind closed doors and partially public, on ending the russian-Ukrainian war. But as for the fundamental issues, there is still little chance of reaching common ground.

It is more realistic to reach an agreement on navigation in the Black Sea, that is, unblocking the Black Sea waters to ensure logistics routes for civilian vessels. The issue of an energy ceasefire is also less likely, but still possible, and even russia is raising it in its own way. True, in a rather perverse format, when it comes to announcing full-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure”, - Chalenko said.

According to him, russian threats to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure may be not only a tool of psychological pressure, but also part of preparations for possible negotiations on the issue.

“This needs to be viewed not only as an attempt to intimidate the Ukrainian population and exert such a cognitive influence, but also as a certain preparation for the negotiating process specifically in this dimension”, - the political analyst explained.

Ihor Chalenko also believes that a potential end to the war will require a broader system of security agreements that will concern not only Ukraine. In his opinion, one of the objectives of the negotiations may be to create conditions for putin under which ending the war would be more beneficial to him than continuing it.

“If we are talking about ending the war as a whole, then obviously we now need to talk not only about security guarantees for Ukraine but also, as strange as it may sound, security guarantees for russia. Consider them security guarantees for Putin, so that he eventually understands that de-escalation will be a better option for him than continuing an eternal war. By the way, let me remind you: Zelensky’s public letter to putin in May this year specifically mentioned such guarantees even for russia”, - he noted.

According to the expert, a separate part of a potential agreement will be a treaty framework between European countries and russia. In particular, this concerns non-aggression and mutual security guarantees.

In his opinion, negotiating pressure is currently being exerted simultaneously on Kyiv and moscow. At the same time, the key problem remains the absence of signals that putin is ready to end the war.

“So yes, pressure is essentially being exerted on both sides. But we do not know the Ukrainian intelligence data. And President Zelensky has stated that, as of now, there is no signal that putin wants to end the war. And this really is a problem, moreover, a problem of a fundamental nature, since putin continues to see his own survival as dependent on continuing this war”, - Chalenko concluded.