Fedorov refused other positions due to lack of real authority, but "not all bridges have been burned yet" – Stupak

Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is unlikely to return to his position despite public support. At the same time, offers of other positions are unlikely to interest him because they do not provide real authority. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by military expert and former Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) officer Ivan Stupak.

In his opinion, it is still too early to speak of a complete breakdown in relations between Fedorov and President Zelensky, but the chances of his returning to the Ministry of Defense are slim.

"I wouldn't say that the relationship has completely deteriorated. But my gut feeling tells me that the president is unlikely to accommodate society and the military a second time. He has already taken one step by agreeing to replace Syrskyi. But, in my opinion, he will no longer dare to bring Fedorov back", - Stupak noted.

According to the expert, Fedorov himself has also taken steps that complicate his return to the government.

"Recall his press conference, where he very harshly criticized the situation in the army. It was serious criticism, and I think it affected the president. In addition, a new acting defense minister has already been appointed. Yes, this does not yet mean that the matter is completely settled, but in my opinion, about 70% of the bridges have already been burned", - he said.

At the same time, Stupak suggests that Fedorov's unwillingness to accept other employment options is due to the fact that he already has his own vision for reforming the defense ministry.

"During his 129 days in office, he gained a solid understanding of how the Ministry of Defense functions. Together with his team, he has already developed a clear understanding of what needs to be done and how to do it, and obviously wants to implement those plans", - the expert explained.

Another reason, he said, is the lack of alternative offers that would provide real influence over decision-making.

"Everything being discussed now involves some kind of role with 'direct access to the president'. But we all understand: today you have that access, tomorrow you don't. Today such a position may seem influential, and tomorrow people simply stop answering your calls or emails", - Stupak noted.

In his opinion, creating special positions or advisory bodies without powers defined by law would effectively mark the end of Fedorov's political career.

"You can come up with any impressive job title, but if it doesn't come with real authority, then it's effectively the end of a political career. I think Fedorov understands that perfectly well", - he added.

The expert does not rule out that the president may still offer Fedorov another position, but estimates the probability of his return to the governing team at only about 30%.

"Theoretically, the possibility of appointing him to another position remains. But the question is—where exactly. As far as I've heard, he has already turned down the option of joining the National Security and Defense Council. And advisory structures are unlikely to interest him. He wants to remain in the Ministry of Defense because that position provides real authority and the opportunity to directly influence decision-making", - Stupak concluded.