The occupation of Kostiantynivka would not mean the collapse of the Ukrainian front in Donbas — military expert Pavlo Lakiichuk

Russian claims that the possible capture of Kostiantynivka would supposedly trigger the rapid collapse of Ukraine's defenses in the Donetsk oblast are part of an information campaign. In reality, for russia to achieve its objectives, it would have to succeed simultaneously on several fronts, which is becoming increasingly difficult. This was stated to OstroV by Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Strategy XXI Globalistics Center and a reserve captain first rank of the Ukrainian Navy.

According to him, russian propaganda spread similar claims during the fighting for Pokrovsk, but they did not come true.

"Six months ago they were saying exactly the same thing about Pokrovsk. And what happened? The front did not collapse. They very much want that to happen, but it looks more like an information campaign", - the expert said.

Lakiichuk noted that the russian military leadership has been assuring the kremlin for years that Ukraine's forces in Donbas would soon be defeated, but those forecasts have repeatedly proven wrong.

"For the third year now, putin has been told that just another two or three months and the Ukrainian grouping in Donbas will be crushed. That is how strategic operations are planned. On paper, they are supposed to last three months, but in reality those three months turn into six months of bloody fighting over just a few kilometers of territory", - he explained.

The expert also pointed out that even a possible advance by russian troops near Kostiantynivka would not, by itself, fulfill their strategic objective.

"It is not enough for them simply to capture Kostiantynivka. Their plan is much broader. They also need to achieve success simultaneously in the Pokrovsk direction and in northern Donbas — in the area of the Serebrianske Forestry and Lyman. Only synchronized success in all these directions can produce the result the russian command is counting on", - Lakiichuk noted.

According to him, there are already signs that it is becoming increasingly difficult for russian forces to sustain simultaneous offensives on multiple fronts.

"We can already see signs that they are losing this synchronization. Before long, the russians will most likely have to decide which direction to reinforce with reserves", - he said.

In Lakiichuk's opinion, Ukraine's strategy of destroying the enemy's logistics could significantly complicate the implementation of russia's plans.

"The most effective approach may be to bleed the attacking force dry. If there are no ammunition, fuel, food supplies, medical support, or evacuation capabilities behind the troops, their offensive potential quickly fades. That is exactly what the Ukrainian Defense Forces are focusing on today", - the expert concluded.