Lukashenko fears losing power, therefore avoids direct entry into the war against Ukraine — military expert Lakiichuk

Self-proclaimed president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is currently trying to avoid the direct involvement of the Belarusian army in the war against Ukraine, as he understands that this could jeopardize his own hold on power. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by the head of security programs at the Globalistics Center “Strategy XXI”, captain first rank (ret.) of the Ukrainian Navy Pavlo Lakiichuk.

“I have been convinced and remain convinced that Lukashenko is afraid of dragging his security forces into the war against Ukraine. Because he relies precisely on them. If he sends them to war, he will effectively be left without his main support. Then he will no longer be who he is now, and his power will become very vulnerable”, - Lakiichuk said.

At the same time, in his view, russian president vladimir putin also understands the value of Belarus’ military resource and, under certain circumstances, may try to use it for his own interests.

“If putin decides to use Belarus, the Belarusian army and its resources in the war against Ukraine, a logical question arises: ‘Why then is Lukashenko needed at all?’ One could simply take control of these resources and use the Belarusian army. Moreover, it could give the russian army a few months’ head start while russia’s mobilization machine ramps up again”, - the expert noted.

That is why, Lakiichuk believes, Lukashenko is forced to constantly balance between the kremlin’s demands and the need to preserve his own political system.

“Lukashenko understands this perfectly. That is why he is trying to balance: doing everything putin demands of him, just so that he does not force him to take the final, most radical step — directly dragging the Belarusian army into the war. Whether he will be able to maintain this balance further is hard to say”, - Lakiichuk concluded.