It is still too early to talk about a turning point in the war, but Ukraine is increasing pressure on russia — military expert Vladyslav Selezniov

Despite the growing number of assessments suggesting a possible turning point in the russian-Ukrainian war, it is premature to draw such conclusions now, as russia still retains a certain margin of resilience. This was stated in a comment to OstroV by military expert and former spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Vladyslav Selezniov.

In his opinion, two parallel trends will develop on the battlefield in the coming months.

"On the one hand, the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' firepower will continue to increase, particularly against the enemy's logistics routes. On the other hand, russia is unlikely to abandon its current plans and intentions", - the expert noted.

He emphasized that the kremlin does not intend to voluntarily give up control over occupied Crimea and will continue seeking ways to hold onto the peninsula.

Selezniov recalled that a similar strategy of systematic attrition had already been used by the Ukrainian military during the liberation of the right-bank part of Kherson oblast.

"It is worth remembering how long the Ukrainian Defense Forces systematically struck the Antonivskyi Bridge in order to eventually force the enemy to leave the right-bank part of Kherson oblast and retreat", - he said.

At the same time, the expert noted that current conditions are much more difficult than during the Kherson campaign. Crimea is located farther from Ukrainian forward positions, and there is also the negative experience of large-scale offensive operations in recent years.

This refers in particular to the counteroffensive in the southern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and the operation to establish bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky.

"Therefore, it is unlikely that we will see such a variant of Ukrainian troop deployment in the near future", - Selezniov believes.

According to him, Ukraine will instead continue to rely on control of the airspace, long-range strikes, and the systematic destruction of the occupiers' military infrastructure.

"Systematic strikes using missile weapons and unmanned systems against logistics, military infrastructure facilities, warehouses, military bases, and energy facilities of the occupiers in Crimea and southern Ukraine will continue in the future", - the expert noted.

He named the primary goal of these actions as the maximum weakening of the offensive potential of the russian army.

"Perhaps this is what will ultimately create the conditions for Gerasimov, putin, or someone else from the russian military-political leadership to be forced to make an unpopular decision and agree to a withdrawal", - Vladyslav Selezniov concluded.