U.S. intelligence: China is providing significant support to russia, the kremlin sees no grounds for ending the war in Ukraine

Russia sees no grounds for ending the war in Ukraine, although U.S. peace efforts could change this and lead to a thaw in relations with moscow. This is stated in the Annual Threat Assessment report of U.S. intelligence agencies on global threats, published on March 18, Polskie Radio reports.

“China’s export of dual-use goods and technologies to russia helps moscow sustain defense production, while reducing its motivation to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine”, - the document says.

It is noted that China is significantly supporting moscow — its ability to wage war in Ukraine and to mitigate the consequences of Western sanctions.

U.S. intelligence assesses that russia maintained an advantage in the war against Ukraine last year and sees no reason to stop hostilities while its forces continue to advance. Moscow is almost certain that it will win on the battlefield and force Kyiv to agree to terms on its own conditions.

The authors of the report, however, noted that U.S. peace efforts could change this dynamic and create conditions for a “thaw” in relations with russia.

“The efforts of the United States in the interest of peace are capable of changing this dynamic and mitigating some of the regional consequences of the conflict. A lasting end to the war in Ukraine could open the way to a thaw in U.S.–russia relations, as well as to improved bilateral geostrategic and trade relations”, - the report notes.

According to the authors, the continuation of the war increases the risk of both unintended and deliberate escalation of the conflict to the level of direct confrontation between russia and NATO forces.

“Russia’s ongoing readiness to sabotage the actions of allies, the United States, and European countries in order to undermine their support for Ukraine — for example, the railway explosion in Poland in November 2025 — is an example of this threat”, - the report says.

The document also notes that, despite military losses, russian ground forces are increasing in number, while the air force and navy remain combat-capable and even more effective than before the full-scale invasion. russia is developing hypersonic weapons systems, anti-satellite capabilities, and underwater capabilities.

According to the agencies, the most serious threat from russia remains the risk of a so-called escalation spiral, which could lead to direct combat with NATO, including a nuclear exchange.