Russia may be preparing a “Donbas scenario” for Estonia

Russia has launched a campaign on social media calling for the proclamation of the “Narva People’s Republic” in eastern Estonia. In Estonia, this is being viewed as possible informational preparation for a scenario similar to the beginning of the russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. This is reported by Bild.

According to the outlet’s sources in Estonian intelligence, for several weeks russian groups on Telegram and VKontakte have been spreading messages calling for the creation of the so-called “Narva People’s Republic” in eastern Estonia.

The posts propose distributing leaflets, carrying out sabotage, and arming themselves to fight against the Estonian government, and also claim possible support from the russian military.

In propaganda materials, pro-russian activists publish fictional maps with the “Narva People’s Republic”, and also distribute the symbols and flags of this entity.

Among the slogans being spread are “Russians, we are not alone!” and “Russian land stretches from Narva to Püssi”.

Narva is a border city in eastern Estonia with a population of about 50,000 people, approximately 90% of whom are russian-speaking.

The spokesperson for the Estonian Internal Security Service, Marta Tuule, stated that these publications are part of a disinformation campaign aimed at destabilizing the situation in the country. According to her, similar methods have already been used both in Estonia and in other states.

“This is a simple and inexpensive way to sow confusion and intimidate society. It is a provocation, and participation in it may have legal consequences”, - she emphasized.

Estonian intelligence also draws attention to the timing of this campaign. A source in Estonian intelligence circles noted that it is no coincidence that it intensified precisely when the world’s attention is focused on the war in the Middle East.

“It is still unclear what the exact goal of this narrative is. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that it may be preparation for a russian invasion modeled on the events in Ukraine in 2014”, - the source said.