Russian large-scale strategic operation is unlikely without mobilization, but they will try to gradually push out the AFU – Roman Svitan

Russia is unlikely to be able to conduct a large-scale strategic offensive operation in the near future, since it lacks the human and material resources for this. This opinion was expressed in a comment to OstroV by military expert Roman Svitan.

According to Roman Svitan, the russian leadership is trying to recruit about 400 thousand servicemen over the course of a year.

“Last year they put about 400 thousand into service, and we eliminated almost all of them. This year they again need to put roughly the same number into service”, - the expert noted.

He added that russia’s strategic goals have remained unchanged since last year.

“They have two strategic tasks: a land corridor through the Zaporizhzhia oblast (that is, access to the left bank of the Zaporizhzhia oblast) and the capture of the entire the Donetsk oblast. These are the tasks they failed to accomplish last year and will try to accomplish this year”, - Roman Svitan said.

At the same time, in his assessment, to conduct a large-scale strategic offensive operation russia would need more than one million troops, which it currently does not have.

“For a large strategic offensive operation, the russians need to put more than a million people into service. They do not have such capabilities. Even if they announce forced mobilization, they will not have time to train such a number of troops”, - the expert explained.

In addition, according to him, the russian economy and defense industry are not capable of providing such a number of troops with the necessary equipment and weapons.

“They will not be able to clothe them, equip them with boots, provide them with equipment and ammunition. They do not have such capabilities at this stage”, - Roman Svitan noted.

Therefore, in his opinion, the russian army will likely continue the tactics of gradually pushing out Ukrainian forces in certain sectors of the front without deep breakthroughs.

“The maximum they can do is push in certain sectors of the front, primarily in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, conducting operations without a deep operational breakthrough”, - the expert said.

He added that such tactics generally repeat the actions of the russian army last year.

“In fact, it will be the same regime of gradual pushing as last year. There will be nothing fundamentally new”, - Roman Svitan noted.

At the same time, according to him, russian troops may conduct limited active actions in other directions in order to divert Ukrainian reserves.

“They may become more active on the flanks to pull away our strategic reserves. This could be the Sumy direction, the Kharkiv direction, and I also do not rule out the Chernihiv direction. But this will not be the main direction”, - the expert explained.

According to his assessment, the russian army will continue to concentrate its main efforts on the southern direction.