Most Ukrainians do not believe in the current negotiations’ success, oppose AFU’s withdrawal from Donbas — KIIS poll

The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (70%) do not believe that the current Ukrainian-American-russian negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine will lead to a sustainable peace. These are the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from February 12 to 24.

25% of respondents believe in the success of the negotiations. The remaining 5% were undecided. Compared to mid-January 2026, there have been no changes on this issue.

At the same time, 57% of Ukrainians категорically reject the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and Europe. In general, 36% are ready, although mostly reluctantly. Another 7% could not decide or refused to answer.

At the end of January 2026, 52% were categorically against, 40% were generally ready to support such an initiative; in mid-January — respectively 54% and 38%. That is, over the past month there have been no significant changes in public sentiment. At the same time, the question did not mention the official recognition of Donbas territories as part of russia; KIIS believes that in such a case the level of support for the proposal would be even lower.

It is noted that from west to east the share of people for whom transferring Donbas under the control of russia in exchange for security guarantees is acceptable increases, but even in the eastern macro-region those who are ready for such a step (44%) are fewer than those who oppose it (45%). In the west — 32% and 60% respectively, in Kyiv — 33% and 62%.

Among respondents under 45, there are more people willing to transfer Donbas under the control of russia in exchange for security guarantees, while among older respondents opponents prevail. The transfer of Donbas is more often acceptable for russian-speaking respondents (51% vs 37%), while Ukrainian-speaking and bilingual respondents are more often against.

Gender, level of education, income, and type of settlement do not significantly affect the answer to this question.

"Ukrainians continue to critically perceive the current peace negotiations, and the majority do not have optimistic expectations from them… At the same time, Ukrainians remain open to difficult compromises and are ready to discuss them — but not at the cost of capitulation. In particular, on the issue of Donbas we see that more than half reject such a proposal, and those who agree put forward strict requirements for security guarantees", - noted KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetskyi.

The survey was conducted using telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers in all government-controlled regions of Ukraine among 2004 respondents aged 18 and older. Half of the respondents (1003 people) were asked standard monitoring questions that KIIS had previously used in January 2026. The other half (1001 people) were asked questions about Donbas and security guarantees in a different wording.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical margin of error for a sample of about 1000 respondents (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account a design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 4.1%. Under wartime conditions, some systematic deviation is added to the stated formal margin of error, but the obtained results remain highly representative and allow for sufficiently reliable analysis of public sentiment, KIIS notes.