“Trump is running out of time for his ‘love’ for putin”. The US is retreating into the shadows, but it can’t exit the negotiation process – Serhiy Harmash

The United States remains a key player in the negotiation process surrounding the war in Ukraine, although it is publicly trying to distance itself. At the same time, Donald Trump currently plays the central role, being more interested in preserving the negotiation process itself than in its outcome. Journalist, political analyst, and former member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Minsk TCG, Serhiy Harmash, said this in an interview with OstroV.

“The US is stepping into the shadows to avoid responsibility for the potential ineffectiveness of negotiations. But it cannot exit the process. The latest statements by Keith Kellogg, for example, indicate that the Americans remain involved — if only because they acknowledge russia’s ‘concerns’ about NATO”, - he noted.

According to the expert, Trump is not interested in the effectiveness of the process, but rather in its continuation.

“He already understands that he cannot influence the outcome, so he’s content with the very existence of negotiations, which allows him not to escalate relations with moscow. But the situation in the US is changing. The threat of losing power due to the White House’s unpopular pro-russian policies could trigger a survival instinct within the Republican Party. Then Trump will come under pressure from party donors he can’t ignore. His time for a ‘love’ for putin is running out. And if this ‘love’ doesn’t produce a ‘child’ appealing to Americans — the ‘deep state’ will take center stage, that is, the System Trump is trying to break”, - Serhiy Harmash emphasized.

He also noted that Trump cannot afford to apply real pressure on the kremlin, since he has business interests in future cooperation with the russian federation. At the same time, his electorate and allies expect toughness.

“This creates a situation where he is forced to demonstrate strength with statements, but not with actions”, - the expert added.

Harmash suggests that even sanctions Trump might potentially impose will either be symbolic or coordinated with moscow.

“I think moscow perfectly understands that Trump has to apply pressure because voters expect it. But at the same time, he doesn’t want to ruin relations with putin — and that balance is extremely delicate”, - he concluded.