Trump will pressure Ukraine, not russia, for "peace through strength". Pressure is always on the weaker side – Harmash

Trump will likely resort to leveraging Kyiv with threats to halt military and financial support in order to create the “on-the-ground realities” that putin desires to end the war, according to Serhiy Harmash, a former member of Ukraine’s delegation to the Minsk talks, who shared his opinion on Telegram.

“Force is always used against those who are weaker. Pressure is exerted on those who can be pushed around, regardless of whether they are the victim or the aggressor. For Trump, it’s easier to push Ukraine than russia. We experienced this firsthand during the Minsk negotiations. So, there’s a 100% chance he’ll apply pressure”, - Harmash wrote, commenting on Zelensky’s congratulatory note to Trump that praised his “peace through strength” approach to global affairs.

Harmash notes that, generally, the Trump plans circulating – though not directly announced by Trump himself – aren’t inherently bad under the current circumstances: a freeze without recognizing annexations, arming Ukraine to dissuade further kremlin aggression, and halting combat along the front line. But, he adds, “The problem for us is that a Trump-style freeze right now would effectively mean defeat for putin, who has yet to gain full control over the Donetsk oblast or force us out of Kursk. A freeze ‘reflecting on-the-ground realities’ would only benefit the Kremlin after achieving these objectives. So putin will likely delay a mutual ceasefire, which is important to Trump, until russia controls all territories it claims in its constitution as russian. In the meantime, as a condition for agreeing to Trump’s plan, putin will demand we withdraw from the Kursk and Donetsk oblasts. Consequently, Trump will pressure Kyiv by threatening to cut off defense and financial support, creating the ground realities that putin needs to halt the war”.

In this context, Harmash argues, it’s essential for Ukraine to “seize the initiative and expedite the inevitable: starting a diplomatic process (not necessarily directly with russia) toward a bilateral ceasefire”.

To avoid becoming wholly dependent on what is now a less friendly White House, Harmash advises that Ukraine leverage the “peace initiatives” of China and Brazil.

“China and the Global South should become our allies. Especially now, as Trump’s election poses a challenge for Beijing. There won’t be a better moment!”, - he emphasizes.

“Balancing between the U.S. and China – two geopolitical powers, with one wielding significant influence over moscow – will allow Kyiv to buy time and more effectively assert its interests in discussions with both. Forceful ‘peace’ measures won’t be aimed at the aggressor, but at the weaker side. For Trump, it’s not about Ukraine or justice, it’s simply about getting them to ‘stop shooting’. We don’t carry enough weight to speak on even ground with Washington or moscow. So, we need to build this leverage through diplomatic maneuvering, bringing other geopolitical players onto our side. The reality has changed, and so must our foreign policy”, - Harmash concluded.