NBU: Another 700,000 Ukrainians may leave for abroad in next two years

The deterioration of the energy situation and the slow normalization of economic conditions in Ukraine will cause a greater outflow of migrants abroad in 2024-2025 than previously expected. This is stated in the July Inflation Report of the National Bank of Ukraine, according to Ukrinform.

According to NBU analysts, a further outflow of migrants abroad is expected in 2024 and 2025, with about 400,000 and 300,000 people, respectively.

"This assumption has worsened compared to the April Inflation Report due to the significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, which is accompanied by long-term power outages and increases the risks for the heating season. In addition to household difficulties, frequent outages negatively affect production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand on the workforce, further stimulating migration", - the report states.

In addition, the reason for migration will be the slow normalization of economic conditions due to high security risks.

The NBU expects the return of migrants to Ukraine to begin in 2026 and to be gradual (about 400,000 people), because due to a long stay abroad, more people are adapting to a new place, and conditions in Ukraine, including due to power outages, will be more difficult than previously anticipated.

"The number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant since surveys show that a significant proportion of them have nowhere to return due to significant destruction", - the report said.

According to Eurostat, as of March 31, 2024, 4.2 million non-EU citizens, who fled Ukraine as a consequence of the russian war of aggression against Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU.

In June 2024, the Council of the European Union adopted a decision to extend the temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees until March 4, 2026.