The further you go, the better it is. Why the "upper classes" do not want to end the war in Donbass
In early 2016 not only residents on the territories controlled by "DLPR" or forced migrants, but also residents of Kiev, or Galicians ask the question: "When will the war be over?" Obviously, Ukrainians, exhausted by 2-year-long "anti-terrorist operation", want to hear even an approximate date of stabilization of the situation in the country. But in the current situation to make any predictions is like to talk about the stories in the subjunctive mood. Solely for the purpose of reference for further independent conclusions, the author offers all interested in the "date of end of the war" to look at a series of numbers, facts, and - so far without them - rumors.
And on the other side ...
Money instead of brain. Everyone knows a slightly modified version of the well-known proverb. And, apparently, people from the authorities of the Donbass "republics" work according to the same principle. With an enviable permanency both Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko continued to play the role of some "peacekeepers", with all the forces trying to resist the further conduct of hostilities. Even residents of the "republics", especially prone to the charms of the Russian propaganda, don’t believe them.
However, there is a nuance: is peace beneficial for Plotnitsky, Zakharchenko and their "state apparatus"? Without going into unnecessary details, let’s recall that before the war Plotnitsky was a "middle" official in the Luhansk Regional Inspectorate for Consumer Protection and, as informed sources say in Luhansk, he not only abused official position, but almost "got burned" loudly on bribery. Now people would say about the situation in Luhansk that the current head of the "republic" "lost coast". Today Igor Plotnitky embezzles and spends much larger amounts than a minor official of Ukraine that he hates. The sphere of his interests, constantly bringing revenue, includes: control over the sales of fuel and lubricants, coal trade with Ukraine and Russia, control over distribution of humanitarian aid and its sale in the supermarkets. In fact, Plotnitsky "makes money" on everything from baby food in kindergartens and trade of scrap metal to the "protection" of coalmines.
Donetsk "colleague" of Plotnitsky in the struggle for "world peace" and fortune, Mr. Zakharchenko before the war, according to the testimony of Donetsk residents, used to be "underboss" at several mines in Donetsk region, a sales representative of Ukrainian alcoholic beverages producers, and an employee of the Donetsk branch of the Kiev Gavrilovskiye Kurchata company.
Later Zakharchenko got his own warehouse and several shops and worked separately as a seller of chicken carcasses. Such social and business status of the current ruler of the "DPR" in Donetsk was described simply and clearly - "commerce" and "troubler".
The scope of the current interests of Zakharchenko correlates with newfound business of Plotnitsky, however, you can add to Zakharchenko’s capital control of cashing bank cards and cigarette smuggling from tobacco factory in Donetsk, which continues to work. By the way, Donetsk residents say you can often find Ukrainian goods in stores. Roshen sweets, for example. Residents don’t believe in inexhaustible supplies and starting to whisper, they say on the phone: "It is smuggling from Ukraine. Zakhar (Zakharchenko - Ed.) protects it."
By the way, earlier curious rating appeared in the Ukrainian media. The publication The Power of Money together with the Centre of Research of Russia and the occupied territories investigated and published on the basis of open sources a list of twenty richest militants of Donbass.
The source also notes the fact that the amounts shown in the ranking are "imputed and approximate".
Stories of "staggering success" accompany almost every important person-leader in the "LDPR". "Ministers" Manuylov, Pasechnik, Pushilin, Potapov ... - all of these people know the taste of power and money, and consolidated themselves relatively well in their "positions". Just as the "republics" took their place on the map of Ukraine, despite the "hooray-patriotic" view of the proximity of their "unconditional surrender". Only war, not unpleasant for all, allowed them to become Donbass "kings". Are they going to finish it? No. For them it's like to cut a hole in their pockets.
Beam in their eye
One cannot deny the existence of corruption interest in the war of some Ukrainian security officials. The frequency of occurrence of corruption scandals on the ATO has become a kind of regular cyclicity for the Ukrainian media. Let’s recall only some of the most striking episodes that "cheered" Ukrainians in 2015.
"Sheer treason" - these words, for example, were said by the Chief Military Prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoliy Matios when commenting on one of the Ukrainian TV channels the presence of corruption component in the structure of the Ministry of Defense. According to the prosecutor, the government should allow to exercise general supervision function of disbursement in military units.
"I have reported to the committee several times, I have a very painful impression. Besides the desire of the chairman of the committee to do something, and sometimes you even need to argue contradictory. Pashinsky is the engine of some processes, and the rest of the committee is epistolary and controversial elements. They speak and do nothing, and I do not hear any important things. For example, I want to complain. We have provided 60 billion on defense this year and 100 billion next year. But now no one controls disbursement on defense in the state, except for departmental group of the Ministry of Defense, where people have worked for 8-10 years," - said Matios.
According to him, corruption continues to thrive in the Ministry, "but its revealing is now scarce."
"During war and hostilities in the ATO, the state should, if it has already endowed punitive functions to the prosecutor's office, allow military units to exercise the general supervision function, because it is the keystone. Well, if we do not understand how 100 billion hryvnia are gone, then it will just be sheer treason," - said the prosecutor.
The deputy head of the Presidential Administration Andrey Taranov stated on February 2nd, 2015 about the dismissal of two employees of the Administration due to "violation of moral principles in the preparation of the combatant status." As it turned out, they became "the ATO participants" because of mainly business trips to the "quiet" territories of Donbass that are controlled by Ukraine, but not due to bedding in the trenches on the front line. It was awkward.
"Two employees got fired - said Taranov. - There is a moral component, there is a legal component."
According to him, if we consider the situation from a legal point of view, there are no violations on their part in accordance with current legislation. "But there is a moral component, when soldiers actually are involved with guns. And when the official come to the area, but do not directly take part in the fighting - it is a moral aspect,"- said Taranov.
"Only the military, who are directly on the battlefield protecting with arms our freedom, can receive the combatant status. Military tourism, if there are such cases, should be over, "- said the statement by Taranov.
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s sensational project The Wall, later renamed the European Wall, was even more awkward but it hasn’t become more successful as of the beginning of 2016. Let’s recall that the project, presented in September 2014, involves strengthening of the Russian-Ukrainian border on the line of more than three thousand kilometers. They were going to build the Wall for four years and spend 66 million euros on it.
Three months later, the construction of the Wall, that had barely started, was suddenly stopped. Weather conditions were said not to allow construction. In the spring of 2015 Yatsenyuk spoke again about the Wall and claimed that they would spend on the Wall less than originally planned.
In November 2015 the chief of department on interaction with the media of the administration of the State Border Service Oleg Slobodyan spoke about the Wall as follows: "A set of preparatory measures has been carried out since October-November 2014. We have conducted design work for nearly six months. The overall project is worth 4 billion hryvnia. The project will last until 2018, it will be implemented in 3 stages. The first and second stages are construction of engineering fortifications, the third is outfitting of reporting system."
December 2015 gave new comment to Ukrainians. Head of the State Border Service Viktor Nazarenko stated that they had received financing in the amount of 400 million UAH for implementation of the project.
"Work is carried out on the whole Ukrainian-Russian border, but today the focus is made on the territory of two regions - Chernigiv and Kharkov," - said Nazarenko.
Let’s recall that the project also involves the construction of fortifications in Luhansk region, and anti-tank ditches have already been dug there. Residents of northern areas of Luhansk claim that conscripts soldiers and AFU equipment were involved in digging ditches. At the beginning of 2016 these ditches, according to locals, acquired quite different from the original function.
"In autumn there was a real morass, these pits were covered with ground, kids organized a frog farm there, they entertained. Those who are older, students, made springboards from two sides and now jump with their bicycles, it’s better than drinking vodka. Thanks to Yatsenyuk, he takes care of the youth,"- resident of Belovodsk district in Luhansk region told OstroV with a smile and optimism about anti-tank ditches.
Not only things happening in the "upper echelons" of power should be noted, but let’s also consider a more mundane situation - the shooting of the Joint Mobile Group on Anti-Smuggling on September 2nd, 2015 near Schastye in Luhansk region. As a result, two people were killed, four were wounded. Initially they talked about the two versions - saboteurs militants of the "LPR" or our people, interested in contraband flows. Today, the investigation believes that it’s "own" people.
"Saboteurs groups, that could come from the uncontrolled territory of Ukraine, are not involved in shooting of mobile groups near Schastye in Luhansk region. The crime was committed by persons who were and are now on the territory under the control of Ukraine,"- said Anatoliy Matios on the air of hromadske.tv.
Actually, the same question remains unanswered: to what extend are Ukrainian army and authorities "infected with" the virus of corruption and how will it affect the creation of the conditions to cease the armed conflict in Donbass? For example, Transparency International experts say that Ukraine gained one point for a year of struggle against it and caught up with Iran and Nicaragua.
"If we analyze what is happening to anti-corruption reforms in Ukraine, not much is happening. Political will is weak enough, the government does not show determination to work to fight against corruption. A small increase in the index of Ukraine took place due to the social condemnation of corrupt officials, establishment of anti-corruption bodies and appearance of movement denouncers," - noted the organization.
In terms of the "date of the end of the war", I recall a comment by deceased Andrey Kuzmenko, on what should happen to the country to bring positive changes: "All that fu*erks that are in Verhovna Rada should be shot and fu*ed ... ". And this "recipe" regards not only the Verkhovna Rada, leaders of "republics" or the masters of the Kremlin. We are talking about the elimination of all, even the smallest link in the chain of earnings in the war. And it now seems utopian, so the war will not end soon, well, or will become sluggish and chronic, despite the desire to be wrong in such a prediction.
Ostap Gorodenko, OstroV