The strategy of the crisis resolution in eastern Ukraine
The Coalition of Patriotic Forces of Donbass, the union 17 public organizations from Donetsk and Luhansk regions (previously the Committee of Patriotic Forces of Donbass), has developed and presented a draft strategy to resolve the conflict in Donbass. CPFD is lobbying its adoption as a whole law or set of drafts in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. There is already a mutual understanding on this issue with the deputies from the Samopomich faction. We offer this document to the readers of OstroV but not in full due to national security interests.
This strategy is based on the fact that the war in the eastern Ukraine is of HYBRID nature, accordingly, it is IMPOSSIBLE to win only due military actions!
Moreover, military actions as a major destabilizing factor in Ukraine are the most desirable for the Kremlin's course of events. Therefore, we have to avoid this scenario and give asymmetric responses to the Moscow’s challenges.
We must admit that our armed forces are fewer and worse armed than the Russian ones, disguised as so-called "militia". While the border with Russia is open, and Russia is strong, the military scenario is undesirable for Ukraine. Ukraine needs to buy time to rearm and strengthen its military forces, or to create organized guerrilla networks like the Swiss army.
However, this does not mean the end of the fight or preservation of the crisis. This means Ukraine's transition from military action to HYBRID war, in which the military appear on the stage only at the end.
Hybrid war involves pressure on the enemy primarily through POLITICAL, ECONOMIC and HUMANITARIAN factors. This means actions against the ruling Vladimir Putin’s political regime in Russia on the diplomatic front and in all spheres of economy and finance, the development of internal opposition and necessarily the growth of information impact on the object of attack.
All state institutions in Ukraine have to determine the weaknesses of the aggressor in their field of activity. A comprehensive programme for non-military weakening of the Russian Federation should be developed on the basis of analysis results
It is imperial Russia, not DPR and LPR, that shall be subject of counter-attack from Ukraine. Fighting with the separatists, but not with the Russian regime, nourishing them, is anyways like treating symptoms of the disease rather than eliminating its causes.
The most important area is the destruction of myth of imperial Russian people, its nation developing role on which the whole ideology of the Russian state is built. The destruction of the myth would lead to disintegration of the Russian Federation and liberation of the enslaved peoples of Imperial Russia.
The Moscow’s objectives are clear and its leaders have repeatedly announced them: constitutional reform in Ukraine, federative structure or even autonomy of Donbass and the actual recognition of subjectivity of DPR/LPR terrorists by Ukrainian authorities via conducting direct negotiations with them. Putin wants to make Donbass the center of permanent instability in Ukraine and the lever of his influence on it. Our task is to turn the occupied territories into the center of instability of Imperial Russia and burden for its economy, to hand over to it the entire responsibility for the political, social, military and humanitarian consequences of the crisis unleashed by it in the East of Ukraine…
To do it we offer the following set of steps:
1. Publicly the President of Ukraine should declare in his state-of-the-nation speech to dwellers of the occupied territories that we refuse to conduct offensive warfare for the liberation of the territories seized by terrorists but AFU will man the defenses. Declare the priority of human life over the area.
The main messages of the speech might be as follows: "We will never recognize "DPR-LPR", we will never recognize one’s jurisdiction over those territories, except Ukrainian but now we do not have sufficient resources to ensure a rapid and effective liberation of the occupied territories, protection of civilian population on the occupied territory, that performs the function of the hostages, we cannot guarantee the rule of law in this area as well as implementation of citizens' rights. We understand that the current offensive warfare on the occupied territories will lead to a huge number of deaths among civilians and Ukrainian soldiers. Therefore, we appeal to the international community to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe on the occupied territories, promote the protection of civilians, use means of international legal effect on the state-aggressor in order to protect the civilian population in accordance with the Geneva Convention of 12 August 1949 on the Protection of War Victims (chapter 3, articles 50-60). We are forced to suspend temporarily the attempted military liberation of our lands from the invaders and regaining control over the territories of Ukraine in order to preserve lives of Donbass civilians and Ukrainian soldiers".
Goal:
- Change public opinion of people living on the occupied territories and in Russia, where it is believed that Ukraine fights war with the population of Donbass, therefore, anti-Ukrainian sentiments are growing;
- Declare our peaceful position to the world community;
- Force Russia to cease hostilities;
- Reduce intensity of anti-mobilization sentiments in Ukraine;
- Give people of both occupied and free territories the vision of conflict development future;
- Gain time to create a powerful defensive line and the conditions of the impossibility of expanding the occupied territories to transfer a hybrid war onto the enemy territory;
- Give "defensive" motif to our partners to reason the provision of Ukraine with military equipment;
- Prepare the base and accumulate resources for the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine in the future.
2. Official recognition of the occupied territories as OCCUPIED BY THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, adoption of the relevant legal acts by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
Goal:
- Hand out the responsibility for social, military and humanitarian consequences of the crisis in the eastern Ukraine to Russia;
- Define legally the status of Ukrainian citizens living on the occupied territories;
- Undermine the Russian economy;
- Change the idea in the consciousness of dwellers of the occupied territories and the Russian Federation about who is responsible for the economic and social and political situation on the occupied territories;
- Identify clearly the Russian Federation as the subject of negotiations on Donbass, bypassing DPR and LPR;
- Include possibility of legal proceedings against Russia, that occupied part of the territory of Ukraine;
- Introduce legal framework, currently contrary Art. 64 of the Constitution of Ukraine, restrictions on the rights and freedoms of Ukrainian citizens living on the occupied territories.
3. The official recognition of "LPR" - "DPR" as pro-Russian terrorist organizations that have been established and have been operating under the control of the Russian Federation to entrench the territorial integrity of Ukraine and occupy the territory of Ukraine.
Goal:
- Define within the legal framework all participants of the armed conflict, organize their legal status and, therefore, determine the behavior of Ukraine in relation to them.
4. Introduction of the legal regime of martial law on the territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Goal:
- Return to the constitutional field in accordance with Art. 64 of the Constitution all those right restrictions (property rights, freedom of movement, etc.), which were introduced by Ukraine to maintain the country's defense and defense of Territorial Integrity, combat terrorism;
- Eliminate preconditions for a possible and reasonable presentation of claims to state in the national and international courts with following satisfaction of the subsequent damage caused to private individuals and legal entities at the expense of the Ukrainian budget;
- Create a legal basis for the international legal responsibility of Russia for the massive human rights violations in Donbas;
- Eliminate preconditions for pro-Russian interpretation of the situation in Ukraine as an internal conflict.
5. Complete severance of economic ties with the occupied by Russian territory. Ban on any economic ties with the occupation authorities and business entities operating on the occupied territories. Impose economic sanctions for violation of this prohibition. Criminalize collaboration with the occupation authorities.
Goal:
- Force Russia to invest its resources in the region and livelihoods, undermine its economy;
- Form social protest base among the civilian population in order to undermine the occupation control of "LPR" - "DPR";
- Create incentives for collaborators’ departure from Ukraine to Russia after the liberation of the occupied territories.
6. Establish State logistics center in order to minimize losses caused by the severance of economic ties with the occupied territories of Donbass and Russia.
Goal:
- Assist big business and business entities in the reorganization of their supply and sales chain due to the loss of economic ties with the occupied territories and the Russian Federation;
- Coordinate the state policy on the replacement of resources and distribution channels, associated with the Russian Federation and the occupied territories (including Crimea).
7. Analysis by all state bodies of Ukraine the possibility of weakening Russia in areas of their activity and preparation of a comprehensive programmme of non-military weakening of the aggressor.
Goal:
- Weaken Russia in a non-military way in all areas of its activity, especially those related to Ukraine.
8. Not for publication
9. Destruction of TV towers and other technical means of broadcasting, working on the occupied territories. Jamming of all illegal broadcasts on our frequencies of electronic media. Parallel capacity growth of Ukrainian informational presence on the occupied territories, including special broadcast directed at the occupied, the front-line territory and enemy territory.
10. Creating a loyal system of pass control to the territory controlled by Ukraine and the occupied territories for the citizens of Ukraine who have or had registration on the occupied territories, after Their OPERATIONAL check on involvement in terrorism in the databases of the respective computer security services and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. If there is no such a database now, then create it. An export permit to bring everything from the occupied territory, except for weapons and drugs, the importation into the occupied territories a limited number of products and financial resources.
Goal:
- Preserve interpersonal communication channel between relatives;
- Preserve interpersonal channel of positive information reports about Ukraine on the occupied territories.
11. Creation of accommodations and jobs for the forced migrants. The adoption of an appropriate comprehensive state programme and giving it the status of priority for all governmental authorities. Registry of vacant houses in the villages of Ukraine for the temporary relocation of those who in need of accommodation, forced migrants of Donbass.
Goal:
- Mitigate social consequences of the occupation for forced migrants from Donbass;
- Raise Ukrainian villages and develop agricultural and industrial complex of Ukraine.
- Create jobs for manufactures compensating severance of economic ties with Russia and Donbass (e.g. bioenergy).
12. Establishment of the preferential economic regime forced migrants. Special loan conditions on accommodation. Including compensation payment for lost accommodation or the payment of the first installment of the loan for property purchase (possibly by transferring ownership of the abandoned accommodation on the occupied territories). Establishment of the preferential mode of conducting business for migrants. It should be beneficial for people to leave the occupied territories.
Goal:
- Mitigate the social consequences of the occupation for forced migrants from Donbass and social rehabilitation;
- Promote construction of Ukrainian industry and its affiliated branches.
- Social rehabilitation of forced migrants.
13. Establishing a special investment regime and preferential treatment of doing business in Donbass controlled by Ukrainian authorities.
Goal:
- Economic and social rehabilitation of unoccupied Donbass;
- Establish on the territories closely located to the occupied ones the model of new Ukraine that will make people of Donbass believe in positive changes in Ukraine;
14. Adoption of the law on the special status of the territories of Donbass (controlled by Ukraine) stating a pilot introduction of new models of organization and functioning of the authorities and other institutions of the political, social and economic life of the society to improve life of citizens of Ukraine.
Goal:
- Create legal conditions for the reorganization of the government and accelerated social and economic reforms;
- Strengthen control of these territories;
- Change local political elites;
- Improve people's lives really and rapidly.
15. Establishment of central executive authorities (ministry or committee) on the issues related to occupied territories to coordinate all activities concerning implementation of this Strategy and t Strategy of the Crimea return.
Goal:
- Coordinate activities of state bodies on implementation of the Strategy
Coalition of Patriotic Forces of Donbass