Self-destroying worship of the Minsk agreements
Obviously, Poroshenko’s plan, for the realization of which he refuses a part of the sovereignty of the country, means that Ukraine will fulfill its obligations under the Minsk Protocol and Russia won’t. And then the West, supposedly, will give us a lethal weapon, strengthen sanctions against Russia and Putin will leave Donbass or in general fall under the pressure of the international community...
Something similar happened with the boiler near Debaltsevo in February, when the destruction and withdrawal of our military was represented by the President Poroshenko as a "planned withdrawal". The strategic plan was that we had to sacrifice our people and territory, to show the West that Putin violates the Minsk Agreements. The West saw. So what?..
The point is that the Minsk Agreements are written in such a way that each side can interpret them differently. For example, Art. 10 of the Agreement says about the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the "territory of Ukraine". Not Donbass but Ukraine (!). That is also from the Crimea. Obviously, Poroshenko (if he is not a banal traitor) by signing this point saw this trap for Russia. And Putin "doesn’t care" what Poroshenko sees there because according to his Constitution the Crimea is Russian territory. How will the West look at this issue as it is afraid of war with Russia and objectively wants to bargain with it? – The West will act for its own benefit but not like it is though or promised to Poroshenko. Does it mean that Ukraine, performing the Minsk Agreements unilaterally, recognizes that Crimea is not Ukrainian territory anymore? Or does anyone naively think that Putin will bring out his troops?
Further. We are told that the Minsk Agreements are the mechanism of the peaceful political resolution of a crisis in Donbass. Resolution with whom? We all scream that we don’t have an internal conflict but a war with Russia in Donbass. Then why do the Minsk Agreements require agreements with the representatives of "some areas"? Or do we recognize that it is not external aggression but a civil war? But then this is a formal reason for the West to lift sanctions from Russia ... Let today it be formal and Merkel and Obama do not take advantage. But what if tomorrow the chancellor will be replaced by someone else, who is more loyal to Russia?
And what is, in fact, the mechanism of "peaceful resolution"? – Poroshenko is likely to see it as follows: elections are held according to Ukrainian legislation, the border is closed, and after that he will be able to "negotiate" with the local separatist authorities, which, despite their army (renamed as the police), courts and prosecutor's office but being cut off from Russia, will be unable to resist seriously Ukrainian law enforcement officers...
But who guarantees that Putin will not open the border again for "holiday-makers" or even officially defend the "Russian World" and the holders of Russian passports, who are already numerous in Donbass? Or won’t he be interested in the destabilization of Ukraine anymore and will he calmly look at strengthening of its pro-Western course? The question is rhetorical.
Elections according to Ukrainian legislation ... Please pay attention – according to the Minsk Agreement, Russia will start transferring control of its part of the border to Ukraine the next day after the elections, and finish after "a comprehensive political resolution" (within the meaning of the Kremlin and separatists) . This means that the elections themselves will be held with the open border and, though according to Ukrainian legislation, but with the absence of the Ukrainian state as such on the territory. Will many Ukrainian patriots go to the territory controlled by terrorists to take part in the elections? And what are their chances to get to a Russian prison like Nadezhda Savchenko and Oleg Sentsov?
When Poroshenko and Groisman blatantly lie that the amendments to the Constitution have "no special status", they simply juggle with words. Because "the peculiarities of local self-government", which separatists gain, include police, courts and prosecutor's office, "formed with the participation of local authorities". And "different from the general" order of economic and investment activities. And even "strengthening and deepening of good-neighborly relations" with Russia. If it is not a special status ... Then let's give the same rights and powers to all regions of the country. Or to deserve this (plus amnesty) do you need to kill two thousand Ukrainian soldiers (according to official statistics) and thousands of civilians?
The fact, that Putin and separatists have criticized the changes to the Constitution, doesn’t mean that they are afraid of them, but no matter what concessions Ukraine makes according to Minsk, they will not recognize it as the performance of their interpretation of the Minsk Agreements. That is, peace (despite the promises of politicians and pro-presidential "political analysts") is not guaranteed by our humiliation, but it divides society, demoralizes its patriotic part, disappoints in the leadership of the country.
This Poroshenko’s plan is built on unreal things, in particular assumptions, probable scenarios and promises of Western politicians. In return Ukraine actually changes its constitution, actually legalizes separatists and terrorists, actually creates a precedent that encourages separatism and secession, actually waives part of its sovereignty by changing the Constitution under the influence of ... - Exchange of virtual to the real.
In fact, our self-destroying worship of the Minsk Agreements is aimed at rescuing the reputation of an elderly German woman and recruited by her slurred French, who have put their signatures under the Minsk Agreemnets and thus put on their reputation. Moscow uses this fact when Lavrov appeals in mass media to "the credibility of the leaders of the two largest European countries who have put their reputations on them". For Merkel and Holland Minsk Agreements, even if they realized their uselessness, are not mechanisms for resolving the crisis in Ukraine but the question of their own reputation. Therefore, contrary to common sense there are words of their inevitability.
All these political, moral and, already, human sacrifices are just in exchange for a promise of future loyalty of Western leaders. Despite the claims of Poroshenko on international anti-Putin coalition, there is no such loyalty today. And there is no coalition! The West decides its own problem in Minsk, in particular the prevention of the war in Europe. It does not solve Ukrainian problem of a really flaming war in Ukraine. It does not help us with weapons (in fact, Dmitry Tymchuk says about undeclared embargo on arms trade with Ukraine), the sanctions imposed on Russia are pinpoint, and public pressure on Kiev regarding the amendments to the Constitution, "according to the Minsk Agreements" intensify geopolitical objectivity of Ukraine in the eyes and its own citizens and the world. The Crimea seems to be simply "postponed" by the West for indefinite period of time (according to the Minsk Agreements, recent speeches of Poroshenko and supply of Ukrainian goods in the occupied territory).
The impression is that scared Europe sacrifices Ukraine part by part to Putin to calm down nuclear statue. At first it gave the Crimea away and now Donbass. What would it give more if only there was no war? ...
The Minsk Agreements have one indisputable advantage, in particular the delay time due to which we have strengthened our army. But the same advantage can be used by separatists controlled by Russian. They also had an opportunity to strengthen their army. Moreover, they are also building a real state: teach our children according to Russian textbooks and Russian curriculum, establish economic ties with Russia, build logistics of its administrative machinery ... And if in result of the Minsk Agreement our government loses the support of the society each day, there with each peaceful day, each payment of pensions and humanitarian aid the situation is contrary, faith in the ability of the "authorities" to establish a normal life is strengthened. And Ukraine helps by trading with terrorists, providing orders for their enterprises, in this way paying salaries and filling local budgets, etc ...
Let’s realize that the issue of "special status of Donbass", which, according to President Poroshenko, doesn’t exist, actually split the Ukrainian society! For the first time in the past year and a half, the nation that was united to fight against this enemy is now split. Revolution advantages ended in the deepest humiliation. The authorities finally lost the trust of a large part of the citizens, and thus became half-legitimate!
The entire "Poroshenko’s peace plan" is built on his assumptions and promises of the West and Putin. But we know and remember the price of these promises. Budapest is a good memory stimulant. The West will be with those who are stronger. And even after the full implementation of all agreements unliterary by Ukraine, the West will be still afraid of the war and want to bargain with Russia. But Russia will still possess nuclear weapons and unpredictable adventuring leader. So, little will be changed in the West’s attitude towards Ukrainian problem.
"Anti-Putin coalition" is a myth. It is so because the countries that, as Poroshenko supposes, belong to the coalition, have neither common goal nor common understanding of the danger posed by Putin. In this so-called "coalition" of all solve their problems. The real anti-Putin coalition can be formed only of the states that directly feel threaten by Russia and understand what it is based on the historical and geographical factors. They may be Poland, Baltic states, Moldova and other countries in Eastern Europe, especially those bordering on Russia. They may have a common goal common based on common vision of the coming danger. It can be a real coalition that can talk with Russia and the United States, Germany, France, etc. in the collective voice of genuine awareness of the dangers. Now Poroshenko tries to talk personally with the hegemonies, but not from the position of a subject (which indicates geopolitical complex of our inferiority powers), but from the position of an object. Instead of creating a real coalition, united by areal idea and threaten Poroshenko publicly insults the President of Poland stating that there is no alternative to the Minsk format just a day after his proposal for a new negotiating format that format...
That what happened on August 31 in the parliament was like spitting into the soul of the two million migrants, as it showed the course of our authorities to delay the conflict. Discussions of the pro-government deputy Pashinsky about example of Israel and Palestine, that for "decades live in a war mode, but also develop" become a terrible prospect for those who lost their homes, possessions, left friends and family in the occupied area and now lost their hope to get that back. As "Poroshenko’s peace plan" by providing legalization for separatists, having their militia, courts and prosecutors, deprives the Patriots from returning to "peaceful" Donbass.
The event that happened on August 31 near the parliament showed how such constitution will divide the society. The main law of the country, which should be the basis of national consensus, on the contrary will divide the nation into "special" and those who "are not allowed!". It has already divided the society! There can be no changes to the constitution built on the blood!
The main resource of any government is the trust of its own people. Our authorities exchanged this resource for the unsubstantiated promise of the West. It also shows its attitude towards its people (in contrast to Western partners, for some public opinion is the main indicator for the action), and ... its instability. The grenade exploded in front of the Verkhovna Rada after the adoption of the amendments in the first reading no matter who dumped it and with what purpose is an indicator of what level the political opposition in the country is at, what price some politicians are willing to pay in order to achieve their goals ...
By the way, it is disgusting how politicians use the situation to fight against their opponents. After all, what if we look at grenade accident from the perspective who can get benefits from it?", then we will see that it is beneficial only to the president and supporters of his "peace" plan. As now all the participants of the protest action are on the hook and it prevents opponents from subsequent actions. The most effective (this wording does not imply my positive attitude to them) political opponents are also on the hook. The picture of how "renewed" police handled the detained protesters, provokes some thoughts ... There is a direct association with the burning of the Reichstag by the Nazis to blame the Communists later and destroy the opposition. So, yesterday’s result was not only the exchange of sovereignty to unsubstantiated promise of "Western partners" and Moscow "not brothers", but also the growth of the civil opposition to the Ukrainian authorities. Intending to beat all (both the West and Moscow) the President Poroshenko seems to replay only himself...
Sergey Garmash, OstroV, for TSN